Bitcoin midterm bottom pattern faces test as July low differs from history

Bitcoin's bottom timing breaks from past midterm cycles

U.S. midterm elections are 10 days away, and bitcoin (BTC) is near a period that has historically coincided with major bear-market bottoms. This year, however, the timing appears different.

In past cycles, bitcoin reached bear-market lows shortly after midterm elections. The lows came in January 2015 (about 71 days after the 2014 midterms), December 2018 (about 38 days after the 2018 midterms), and November 2022 (about 13 days after the 2022 midterms).

July low came much earlier than in past cycles

• Bitcoin touched $57,850 on July 1, which is 125 days before the Nov. 3 election.
• By Oct. 22, the price had recovered to around $81,455, roughly 40% above that low.
• Bitcoin fell about 29% in the six months before the 2018 midterms and about 37% before the 2022 vote.

Technology stocks show less consistent pattern

The Invesco QQQ Trust, which tracks technology stocks, showed weakness around midterms at times. It fell roughly 23% from the end of September to its December 2018 low, with much of the decline after election day. It also dropped 17% in the three months before the 2022 vote. But QQQ gained 17% over the six months before the 2014 midterms, showing the pattern is not consistent.

Price moves suggest cycle-driven weakness

Bitcoin and QQQ are both down roughly 6% over the past 30 days. Over 90 days, bitcoin remained up 26%, compared with QQQ's 3% gain. QQQ's pullback followed an all-time high of $762.86 on Oct. 6.

The comparison suggests bitcoin's historical midterm weakness reflects its own market cycles more consistently than an election effect.

Sources

• CoinDesk