Bitcoin and S&P 500 both tend to gain in the year after U.S. midterm elections, data shows
Post-midterm history points up for bitcoin and stocks
If history is a guide, bitcoin and the S&P 500 have both tended to rise in the year after U.S. midterm elections. That pattern holds for both crypto and Wall Street, according to data analyzed by CoinDesk.
The article was published Oct. 28, 2026, ahead of the Nov. 3 midterm election. It notes that markets have largely priced in a divided government, but a Democratic takeover of at least one chamber of Congress could still bring more fights over federal debt, defense spending and President Donald Trump’s crypto ties.
What the data shows
- Bitcoin rose an average of 53.7% in the 12 months after the past three U.S. midterm elections, leaving out 2010.
- The measurement counts the daily close (00:00 UTC) on Election Day to the close on the same date a year later.
- Excluding 2010, bitcoin rose 1,579% after the 2010 midterm, but that market was very small and fringe, so the figure is not considered reliable.
- Since 1950, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 15.17% in the year after midterms, more than double its 7.30% average in all other years, per Hartford Funds.
Is it politics or the halving cycle?
History gives only a few data points for bitcoin, so firm conclusions are hard. The article suggests the post-midterm bitcoin rallies may reflect the four-year halving cycle more than U.S. politics.
A halving is built into the Bitcoin blockchain, the public record of all bitcoin transactions. Every four years it cuts the amount of new bitcoin mined by 50%, which reduces new supply reaching the market. Bitcoin has tended to move in roughly four-year waves tied to these halvings. After each of the four halvings so far, prices rallied, peaked 12 to 18 months later and then fell into a bear market. Those downturns came in midterm years — 2014, 2018, 2022 and 2026 — so the rebound following midterms may mark a fresh cycle rather than a political effect.
What has happened so far this cycle
Bitcoin had traded around $80,000 before the article was written. Since bottoming below $60,000 in June, it has already bounced more than 35%.
Some analysts believe the time to accumulate crypto is now, arguing that a new bull run is starting. One linked analysis says it is time to accumulate bitcoin. The article presents this as an analyst view, not a confirmed forecast.
Why this is worth watching
The S&P 500 record matters because it shows that risk assets — investments whose value can move up and down — have a long track record of doing well after midterm elections. That gives bitcoin, which behaves partly like a risk asset, some historical context. But bitcoin’s record is short, and the timing of its moves appears tied to the halving cycle, so the midterm pattern may not be a reliable guide on its own.
What remains unclear
The main uncertainty is whether the bitcoin pattern is really about midterm elections at all, or whether it simply lines up with the four-year halving cycle. With only three usable data points, the link is suggestive but not proven. Markets have so far priced in a divided government, but the election outcome could still change the policy debate.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.