Bitcoin options show short-lived volatility spike priced around US midterms
Options markets expect a brief volatility bump around the US midterms
Traders in bitcoin options are pricing a short burst of market turbulence around the United States midterm elections, not a lasting rise in volatility. That reading comes from bitcoin's implied volatility term structure, according to CoinDesk's Daybook newsletter.
Options are contracts that let traders bet on prices rising or falling, and they settle on set expiry dates. Implied volatility (IV) measures how large price swings options traders expect. The term structure plots that expectation across different expiry dates. Normally the curve slopes upward, because later expiries leave more time for something to move the price.
Key numbers from the volatility curve
- Implied volatility on bitcoin options expiring Nov. 4, just after election day, stands at about 43.5%, as of the report.
- Expiries immediately after that date carry roughly 36% implied volatility.
- The curve settles back near 36% by late November.
- Ether's implied volatility term structure shows a similar pattern.
- Bitcoin futures open interest, the total value of outstanding futures contracts, has held largely steady at $58 billion over the past 24 hours. Ether's open interest held at $23.58 billion.
What the bulge in the curve means
The Nov. 4 bulge shows traders expect increased volatility as early election results and newsroom calls come in, but not a lasting rise in turbulence. The pattern is strongest in options, while futures positioning has barely moved.
According to data tracking platform Laevitas, that combination points to traders buying insurance on positions they already hold, rather than opening new bets. Laevitas said in a statement quoted by CoinDesk: "Flat open interest alongside a funding flip and a five-point skew move describes hedging demand layered onto existing risk, and that kind of demand historically decays hard once the event it was bought for clears."
The skew measures the price gap between put options, which pay off when prices fall, and call options, which pay off when prices rise. A five-point skew means put options are currently more expensive, reflecting demand for downside protection. Laevitas said this kind of protective demand tends to fade quickly once the event passes, so the bulge in the volatility curve could flatten after election day.
Market backdrop and seasonality, as reported
The report notes that bitcoin and ether were trading above the lows they hit on Friday, a resilience the newsletter describes as surprising given the circumstances that week. A CoinDesk chart of the bitcoin implied volatility term structure showed the spike to 42.6% at the Nov. 4 expiry before normalization at later dates.
On seasonality, CoinDesk cites CoinGlass data showing bitcoin's median November gain since 2013 is about 8.8%, excluding the 2013 outlier. The report also states that both the S&P 500 and bitcoin have historically gained after midterm elections. These are historical figures from the source, not forecasts.
What is confirmed and what is not
The implied volatility figures, the flat open interest, and the Laevitas interpretation are reported by CoinDesk as of the morning of Nov. 2, 2026. The idea that the volatility bulge will flatten after the election is presented by Laevitas as a historical tendency, not a certainty. Actual price moves around the election remain unknown at the time of the report.
Sources
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