Bitcoin holds key moving averages before US midterms, jobs data and Apple earnings

Bitcoin steadies near its 100-day average before a busy week

Bitcoin (BTC) began the week above its 100-day moving average, a price line it has used as support since mid-August. The calm comes before a stretch of events that markets treat as high-impact: Tuesday's US midterm elections, US jobs data on Friday, and earnings from Apple and Palantir due Monday after the market close.

According to CoinGlass, October was Bitcoin's weakest since 2014, closing down 7.3%. Bitcoin is down 6.4% for the quarter as of Monday. A moving average is simply the average price over a set number of days, which traders use to judge whether a market is trending up or down.

What to watch this week

• US midterm elections on Tuesday, with prediction markets heavily favoring a Democratic win in the House of Representatives.


• September US job openings on Tuesday and October's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, with payrolls forecast to rise by 65,000.


• Earnings from Apple and Palantir on Monday after the close, with 20% of S&P 500 companies reporting in the coming days.


• Bitcoin holding its 100-day simple moving average, now at $76,548, after last week's low near $76,300.

Prediction markets expect Democrats to win the House

Tuesday's midterms will decide control of Congress. Kalshi, a prediction market where users bet real money on outcomes, put the probability of Democrats winning the House at 93.6% as of Monday.

President Donald Trump said, according to the New York Post, that he would use his veto power if Democrats took control of Congress: "I guess I'll become Mr Veto. They'll be sending stuff up. You veto it."

What past midterm years did to Bitcoin

Bitcoin ended the fourth quarter lower in each of the past three US midterm election years: down 17.3% in 2014, 43.5% in 2018 and 14.8% in 2022. All three periods coincided with Bitcoin bear markets, so this history describes past bear markets rather than a rule.

Benjamin Cowen, founder and CEO of analytics platform IntoTheCryptoverse, suggested midterms can act as a cue to increase BTC exposure because of their short-term bearish price impact. "Usually the Q4 dump of midterm years just provide opportunities to buy for those who sold long ago," he said Friday on X. In July he noted that Bitcoin bear-market bottoms have coincided with the second half of midterm years.

Jobs data and tech earnings test market expectations

September job openings arrive Tuesday, and October's nonfarm payrolls report lands Friday. Payrolls are forecast to rise 65,000, after September added 29,000 jobs against forecasts of 84,000. Such an outcome would notionally increase the odds of dovish signals from the Federal Reserve, which the source describes as bullish for crypto and risk-asset liquidity.

CME Group's FedWatch data shows markets currently expect a 0.25 percentage point rate increase at the December FOMC meeting, with those odds between 67% and 75% over the past month. The University of Michigan will also release its preliminary November consumer sentiment survey on Friday, including inflation expectations.

On the corporate side, 20% of S&P 500 companies report in the coming days, led by Apple and Palantir on Monday evening. The reports follow last week's tech sell-off on disappointing guidance. Economist Mohamed El-Erian described markets as now "acutely sensitive" to tech headlines, writing that "the market is particularly focused on justification for the massive capital expenditures being deployed across the sector, ROI's, and revenue growth."

The chart pattern traders are comparing to the 2023 recovery

TradingView data showed Bitcoin staying above last week's low near $76,300 around the monthly close. That low sits close to the 100-day simple moving average, which has since risen to $76,548. Bitcoin also reclaimed its 100-week exponential moving average, standing at $77,759, in time for the monthly close.

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital compared the weekly chart with Bitcoin's rebound from its 2022 bear-market low, which produced an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern where price retested right-shoulder support, briefly fell below it, then rallied. Last week's drop brought Bitcoin back to what he identified as right-shoulder support on the current chart.

"The question now is whether Bitcoin can produce some sort of downside deviation below here over the next few weeks," Rekt Capital said. This is a chart comparison and scenario watch, not a confirmed forecast.

What is confirmed and what is not

Confirmed: the election date, the Kalshi 93.6% figure, the published jobs forecasts, the CME FedWatch odds range, the earnings dates for Apple and Palantir, and the moving average levels cited from TradingView data.

Not confirmed: whether the midterms will pressure Bitcoin lower, whether the 2023 pattern comparison will play out, and whether payrolls will land as forecast. Cowen's and Rekt Capital's remarks are trader opinions and scenarios, not verified outcomes.

Sources

• Cointelegraph

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