Bitcoin enters the 2026 midterms above its 200-day average, breaking a pattern back to 2014
Bitcoin goes into the midterms above its 200-day average for the first time since 2014
Bitcoin is going into this week's U.S. midterm elections in a position it has not held since 2014: trading above its 200-day average. The 200-day average is the mean price of the past 200 days, a widely watched gauge of whether an asset is in a long-term up or down trend.
According to CoinDesk, bitcoin traded near $76,990 as of Monday, Nov. 3, 2026, about 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169. The article's price ticker quoted bitcoin at $77,761.51. Trading above that average is generally read as a long-term bullish (upward) trend.
Key numbers
- Bitcoin near $76,990, about 5.2% above its 200-day average of roughly $73,169 (as of the article's writing).
- In 2014, 2018 and 2022, bitcoin traded below its 200-day average on midterm day — by about 35%, 9% and 22% respectively.
- Bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October 2025, and 2026 was widely expected to follow the usual post-peak bear market.
Why this midterm is different from 2014, 2018 and 2022
In each of the last three U.S. midterm elections, bitcoin entered the vote below its 200-day average, consistent with the four-year halving cycle in which bitcoin peaks roughly 18 months after a halving and then falls into a year-long bear market.
2026 was expected to repeat that shape after the October 2025 peak above $126,000. But per CoinDesk, this year's downturn was shallow and front-loaded — most of the drop happened in January and February — which is why the price is already back above the 200-day average.
What DWF Labs says about the months after midterms
CoinDesk also cites past data showing bitcoin rallying significantly in the year after midterms, though it trades choppily in the short run.
Martin Lee, research lead at DWF Labs, said in an email: "The first few months after a midterm have historically been choppy to slightly bearish for BTC, but it has been higher 12 months later every time. Cautious optimism is the approach we're taking." He added, "History favors BTC on a 12-month horizon, but expect near-term volatility, especially if the war escalates and the AI trade keeps weighing on risk assets."
That is a market participant's opinion about historical patterns, not a prediction.
A volatility signal ahead of a busy week
CoinDesk's market signal for the day: Volmex's Bitcoin 30-Day Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), often called the "Bitcoin VIX," recently broke out of a descending triangle, a pattern that in technical analysis is read as a potential move higher. The index measures the volatility traders expect in bitcoin over the next 30 days.
The timing matters because several market-moving events land this week, starting with Tuesday's midterm elections and ending with Friday's nonfarm payrolls report.
What to watch this week
Per the source, the near-term trend could hinge on the election outcome, along with exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows — funds that hold bitcoin and trade on stock exchanges — and macro data such as Friday's U.S. jobs report and its effect on Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.