Bitcoin holds $76,000 lows as markets await US midterm vote
Bitcoin edges up as Wall Street opens
Bitcoin rose slightly at the start of Wall Street trading on Tuesday, November 3, as traders waited for direction from the US midterm elections. Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD moving around $77,000, still holding the local lows near $76,300 that it reached on Friday.
According to the report, the price edged up 0.7% on the day as US stocks avoided further losses tied to election uncertainty.
Key points
- Bitcoin moved about 0.7% higher on Tuesday while keeping its local lows near $76,300 in place.
- Analysis from The Kobeissi Letter argued that markets were pricing in two years of political uncertainty, with polls pointing to Democratic gains in the midterms.
- The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite Index closed Monday down 0.5% and 1.1%.
- WTI crude oil fell below $94 per barrel on Tuesday, its lowest level since October 15, despite a fresh US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island.
Stocks weigh Apple's forecast against election odds
US equities faced mixed signals at the open. Apple shares tried to recover after falling 4% in premarket trading. The company had forecast gross margins of 45% to 46% for the December quarter, down from 47.9% the quarter before, and pointed to rising memory-chip costs as the reason.
On Monday, the S&P 500 closed down 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index down 1.1%.
Markets were also weighing how the midterm elections might change the balance of power in Congress. Polls pointed to significant Democratic gains, but some analysts cautioned the results may be less decisive.
"Investors seem to have a significant dose of skepticism about whether the final outcome is going to be quite as favorable to Democrats as the polling suggests," Tobin Marcus, head of US policy and politics at Wolfe Research, told CNBC. Wolfe Research also said polls were "likely overstating Democratic strength."
Analysis: markets pricing in political gridlock
Analysts at trading resource The Kobeissi Letter argued that US political uncertainty, not concerns over AI spending alone, was driving recent market weakness. This is opinion and analysis, not a confirmed market outcome.
"The reality is that the market is pricing-in a major shift in the political landscape of the US," the account wrote on X. It suggested a divided Congress could lead to frequent legislative impasses, making policy decisions less predictable.
"A change in the political landscape always comes with uncertainty; markets hate uncertainty," it continued, adding: "Objectively, the market is in the process of pricing-in two years of political gridlock."
Oil brushes off latest Iran strike
Oil prices largely ignored a US attack on Iran's Qeshm Island, described in the report as a key military control outpost for the Strait of Hormuz oil route.
The strike came days after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said President Donald Trump was open to resolving the US-Iran war "diplomatically." Those comments triggered a 7% drop in WTI crude on Monday.
WTI initially jumped to $98.80 per barrel on Tuesday before dipping below $94, hitting $93.59, its lowest level since October 15.
What is confirmed and what is not
The price levels, index closes, Apple's margin forecast, and oil prices are reported figures from the source. The idea that markets are pricing in political gridlock is an analyst's interpretation from The Kobeissi Letter, not a confirmed fact. Election results were not yet known at the time of writing, and one research firm, Wolfe Research, explicitly disputed how much the polls reflect the likely outcome.
Why this matters
Bitcoin has been trading alongside tech stocks during this period of uncertainty, so signals that move equities — election expectations, corporate earnings warnings, and oil-price swings — are also part of the picture for bitcoin's price. The midterm vote is the nearest scheduled event that sources say markets are waiting on.
What happens next
The US midterm vote is the next scheduled catalyst. Markets, per the source, are waiting on its results for direction; bitcoin's $76,300 local low remained the level to watch at the time of the report.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.