Bitcoin on Track for Rare September Gain After Strong August

Bitcoin on track to break September pattern

Bitcoin is on track to break a long-running September pattern, according to CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency has risen this month after a strong August, putting it in position for a rare positive September close.

Key numbers

• Bitcoin is up about 7% in September after gaining 25% in August.
• Since 2013, every positive August has been followed by a negative September, according to the report.
• A positive close would give bitcoin three consecutive monthly gains, from July through September.
• It would also leave the third quarter up more than 40%, its first positive quarter since Q3 2025.
• The report says bitcoin is trading at $84,000.

Bond yields and oil prices add risk

The report describes the macro backdrop as volatile. Bond yields are rising globally, the U.S. 10-year yield is above 5.2%, and the MOVE index, a measure of bond market volatility, is above 100. Oil prices above $90 a barrel add to inflation concerns, while gold fell about 3% on Monday to just above $4,000 an ounce.

Uncertainty remains around the final close and November events

The final September close is not yet known because two calendar days remained when the report was published. The report also says Anthropic's reported plans for a November IPO have not been finalized in timing or size. Whether these conditions will actually slow bitcoin is not confirmed.

Why the fourth quarter faces new tests

The report says the fourth quarter has historically been bitcoin's strongest, with CoinGlass data putting the average Q4 gain at roughly 77%. It also says two November events could test liquidity and risk appetite: a possible Anthropic IPO and the U.S. midterm elections. The report does not predict how these events will affect bitcoin.

Sources

• CoinDesk