Bitcoin Options Worth $15 Billion Set to Expire Friday as Call Bets Cluster Near $100,000
About $15 billion in bitcoin options expires on Friday
Roughly $15 billion in bitcoin options contracts are set to expire on Friday, September 25, according to Bitcoin Magazine, in what the report calls the market's quarterly settlement. The September 25 contracts account for more than a third of all bitcoin options open interest on Deribit, a platform where crypto derivatives are traded.
An options contract gives a trader the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell an asset at a set price on a future date. A call option gives the right to buy, while a put option gives the right to sell.
Key numbers behind Friday's settlement
- About $15 billion in bitcoin options contracts are headed toward expiry.
- The September 25 contracts make up more than a third of all bitcoin options open interest on Deribit.
- The put-to-call ratio sits at 0.70. This gauge compares bets to sell against bets to buy, and the reading means more traders are positioned for prices to rise.
- The biggest piles of call options are stacked at strike prices of $85,000, $90,000 and $100,000.
- Bitcoin was recently trading at around $84,258, down 2% over the past day.
- The so-called max pain level stands at $76,000.
Max pain sits well below the current price
Max pain is the price at which the largest number of options contracts would expire worthless, causing the most losses for option holders. At $76,000, that level is far below where bitcoin was trading.
Bitcoin was sitting just below $85,000, the strike price where call options are most heavily concentrated. Traders are watching whether that level caps prices ahead of Friday's expiry.
Why the expiry could move prices
When a large batch of options nears expiry, crypto markets can become more volatile as traders decide whether to close their positions, roll them into later contracts, or let them lapse.
Bitcoin Magazine notes that past expiries have sometimes been followed by sharp price moves in either direction, and that in the past, when large amounts of options expired, the market crashed. The report adds that this is not a given, because market makers hedging their books can dampen price swings before settlement and sometimes keep prices close to heavily traded strike levels.
What brought investors back to bitcoin
The report says investors showed renewed interest in bitcoin after the artificial intelligence stock rally cooled and the U.S. Department of the Treasury said in August it would at least double the size of its liquidity-support buyback operations.
Analysts said that move pushed 30-year Treasury yields down, weakened the dollar, and made assets like bitcoin more attractive. After the announcement, the report says, bitcoin had its best run in years.
A Tuesday report from crypto market data firm CryptoQuant said bitcoin crossed above its 365-day moving average, which CryptoQuant described as a signal that the asset has finished being in a bear market.
What is still unclear
Whether Friday's expiry leads to a sharp move in either direction is not confirmed. The source describes past sharp moves and past crashes after large expiries, but states that an outcome of that kind is not a given.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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