$16 billion in Bitcoin options expires Friday as two more tests follow
About $16 billion in Bitcoin options expires Friday on Deribit
Roughly $16 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options is set to expire on the Deribit exchange at 08:00 UTC on Friday, Sept. 25, according to CryptoSlate. Calls, which give the holder the right to buy Bitcoin at a set price, make up about $9.6 billion of that open interest. Puts, which give the right to sell, make up about $6.4 billion.
Open interest is the total value of contracts that have not been closed or settled yet.
Bitcoin was trading near $86,300 ahead of the settlement, after climbing above $85,000 earlier in the week. Two US economic releases and the expiry of CME's September Bitcoin futures are due within seven hours of the options expiry, putting three events into a single trading day.
Key numbers for the Friday expiry
- Expiry time and date: 08:00 UTC on Friday, Sept. 25, on Deribit.
- Total expiring notional value: about $16 billion.
- Calls expiring: about $9.6 billion. Puts expiring: about $6.4 billion.
- Calls are about 60% of the expiring open interest.
- Largest call wall in ByKaranteli's model: $95,000. Largest put wall: $60,000. Zero-gamma level: near $71,000.
- Deribit's DVOL volatility index stood at 38.1 on Sept. 22, a level ByKaranteli classifies as very low across five years of history.
Ledn's co-founder describes a two-part expiry cycle
Ledn co-founder Mauricio Di Bartolomeo told CryptoSlate that quarterly expirations such as September's happen in two parts. He said the first part already took place on Wall Street, where options on BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) expired last week in what he described as IBIT's largest single expiration on record. An ETF, or exchange-traded fund, is a product that trades on a stock exchange and can hold assets such as Bitcoin.
Di Bartolomeo said that book was heavily tilted toward calls. In his account, Bitcoin's rally through $80,000 pushed many of those calls into the money, and dealers who were short those contracts bought IBIT shares to stay hedged. He argued that this demand reached Bitcoin itself once it grew large enough to require new IBIT shares, a process that brings spot Bitcoin into the fund through authorized participants. He expects the Deribit book to follow the same pattern.
Di Bartolomeo said: "If the move continues, the large call blocks at $85,000 and $100,000 are where the same dynamic kicks in on the Deribit book."
His description of dealer hedging is his own explanation of how the flows work, not a confirmed record of individual dealer positions.
What the gamma model shows about hedging levels
ByKaranteli's open-source gamma model places the largest call wall at $95,000 and the largest put wall at $60,000. It puts the put-to-call ratio at 0.52 and the zero-gamma level near $71,000. The model's authors present it as a map of possible hedging flows under one assumption about which side of each contract dealers hold.
That assumption matters because exchange data records open interest in total, not by dealer direction.
Gamma measures how much a dealer's hedge needs to change as the price moves. Above the zero-gamma level, dealers who are net long gamma sell into rallies and buy dips, which absorbs price moves and pulls the price toward strikes where many contracts sit. Below it, dealers who are net short gamma buy as the price climbs and sell as it falls, which can amplify a move.
With Bitcoin in the $86,000 area, the model places the market inside the zone it treats as stabilizing. That is a different condition from the one where the research described below found the strongest expiration effects.
Options pricing points to a moderate move
Deribit's DVOL index was 38.1 on Sept. 22. Friday's at-the-money implied volatility was also 38.1%, and skew was near neutral, with 25-delta puts and calls both priced near 39.2%. Implied volatility is the market's estimate of how much the price may move, based on option prices.
At that level, a one-standard-deviation move through Friday works out to about $2,720, or 3.15%, giving a rough band between $83,600 and $89,100. That band puts $90,000 at its outer edge and leaves the $95,000 call wall as a distant level.
Deribit sets its delivery price using a 30-minute time-weighted average of its Bitcoin index between 07:30 and 08:00 UTC.
What a 2026 study found about expiration windows
A 2026 study published in Finance Research Letters found intraday Bitcoin price reversals around Deribit expirations that held up under statistical testing. The effect was strongest when at-the-money open interest was high and estimated gamma exposure was negative.
The same research recorded heavier trading in Deribit perpetuals and in the spot venues that feed the settlement index during those windows. Perpetuals are futures-style contracts without a set expiry date.
CryptoSlate notes that a sharp move that reverses within two hours of 08:00 UTC would fit that documented pattern, while a move that holds through the afternoon events would need broader confirmation.
What is confirmed
About $16 billion in notional value of Bitcoin options expires on Deribit at 08:00 UTC on Friday, Sept. 25, split into roughly $9.6 billion in calls and $6.4 billion in puts, with calls at about 60% of open interest. Bitcoin was trading near $86,300 ahead of the settlement. Two US economic releases and the CME September Bitcoin futures expiry fall within seven hours of the options expiry. Deribit's DVOL index was 38.1 on Sept. 22, and the at-the-money implied volatility for Friday was 38.1%.
What is still unclear
Exchange data records open interest in total, so the actual direction of dealer positions is not publicly known. The gamma levels depend on an assumption about which side of each contract dealers hold. Whether any price move around the expiry holds or fades is also not yet known.
Why these three events matter together
The size of the expiring book is large enough to affect hedging and liquidity conditions, according to CryptoSlate. The expiry lands on the same day as US economic data and the CME futures settlement. CryptoSlate reports that once the hedges unwind, the US data and the CME futures settlement will test whether real buyers sustain the rally.
What happens next
The Deribit options expiry is scheduled for 08:00 UTC on Friday, Sept. 25. Two US economic releases and the expiration of CME's September Bitcoin futures follow within seven hours. Investors and traders will get the answer to whether the rally continues on the back of fresh buying.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.