Saifedean Ammous: shrinking Bitcoin drawdowns are the signal to watch

Ammous calls falling Bitcoin volatility the strongest bullish signal

Bitcoin Magazine published a video on September 24, 2026 in which Saifedean Ammous says falling volatility in Bitcoin is the most bullish development for the asset right now. Volatility means how much the price swings up and down.

The video summary says Bitcoin's bear-market drawdowns have shrunk from roughly 87% to 77% to about 54% this cycle. A drawdown is the drop from a price high to a later low.

According to the summary, that trend moves Bitcoin closer to being an investable asset for money managers. That is Ammous's argument, not a confirmed market fact.

Key points from the interview

• Ammous describes falling volatility as the most bullish development in Bitcoin at the moment.
• The summary states that bear-market drawdowns have narrowed from around 87% to 77% to roughly 54% this cycle.
• He explains why the halving still drives the four-year Bitcoin cycle, according to the summary. The halving is the scheduled event that cuts the rate at which new bitcoin is created.
• He says fewer people are buying with leverage at the top. Leverage means trading with borrowed money.
• He also discusses how markets may eventually arbitrage these cycles away.

Topics listed in the video's chapter guide

The video's chapter list shows the discussion moves through several subjects beyond Bitcoin's price cycles:

• Tether, Bitcoin and the Dollar Milkshake Theory
• How the US carries $40 trillion in debt as the world's reserve currency
• Treasury yields at multi-decade highs and the bond market bear case
• War spending, Iran and the collapse of fiscal hope
• Stablecoins versus banks and the hidden Treasury rollover risk. Stablecoins are digital tokens designed to hold a steady value, often tied to the US dollar.
• The longest hash rate bear market in Bitcoin history. Hash rate is the total computing power used to secure and mine Bitcoin.
• Why miners are pivoting to AI data centers
• The halving, Bitcoin cycles and shrinking drawdowns
• MicroStrategy, Strive and Bitcoin treasury companies
• The Humble Peasant Theory of High Finance

What is confirmed from the source

Bitcoin Magazine published the video on September 24, 2026, written and presented by Patrick Green. The page states that Ammous discusses the shrinking drawdowns, the halving's role in the four-year cycle, and the decline in leveraged buying at market tops.

The video description carries a disclaimer noting that the views expressed are those of the participants and do not necessarily reflect the position of BTC Inc., Bitcoin Magazine or affiliated entities. It also states the content is for information and education only and is not investment, legal, tax or accounting advice.

What is still unclear

The source is a video page with a short summary and a chapter list. It does not include a full transcript, so the full reasoning and any supporting data behind the claims are not available in the supplied material.

The figures for the shrinking drawdowns are presented in the video summary rather than backed by a cited dataset in the source material.

Why the drawdown trend matters

A smaller drawdown means an investor who buys near a high would face a smaller loss at the bottom of the following slump. According to the video summary, the narrowing of these drops is what Ammous says brings Bitcoin closer to being an asset professional money managers can consider.

Sources

• Bitcoin Magazine

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