Bond volatility hits March high while bitcoin and stocks stay calm
Bond market volatility jumps to its highest since March
A gauge of expected price swings in the U.S. Treasury market has risen sharply, while measures of bitcoin and stock market volatility remain near their lowest levels of the year.
The MOVE index climbed from around 80 on Tuesday to 104 on Thursday, its highest reading since March, when it reached 199, according to CoinDesk. The MOVE index tracks how much traders expect the price of U.S. government bonds to move.
The numbers behind the split
- MOVE index: about 80 on Tuesday, 104 on Thursday, and 199 when it last peaked in March.
- Volmex's 30-day bitcoin implied volatility index, known as BVIV: around 37, close to its year-to-date low of 35. An implied volatility index shows the price swings options traders expect over a set period.
- Cboe VIX, which tracks expected volatility in the S&P 500: hovering close to its year-to-date low of 14.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: briefly 5.2% on Thursday before easing to 5.163%.
- 20-day correlation between the VIX and the MOVE index: minus 0.06, negative for the first time since April 2024, though the reading is close to zero.
- 20-day correlation between BVIV and MOVE: minus 0.37, one of its lowest readings in years.
Why Treasury volatility is rising
Government bond yields are climbing globally, according to the report. It says the war in the Middle East has pushed oil and diesel prices higher, which complicates the outlook for inflation and raises questions about how much further central banks may need to tighten policy.
Bond traders are now paying considerably more for protection against swings in interest rates, the report says.
Bitcoin and stock markets show little reaction
Neither bitcoin nor the S&P 500 is showing the same demand for volatility, the report says, even as bond volatility rose.
CoinDesk says the divergence points to underlying strength in bitcoin and stocks. It notes that higher volatility in Treasury notes, which underpin global finance and credit creation, typically tightens financial conditions and makes risk-taking less attractive.
For comparison, when the MOVE index was last around this level in March, the S&P 500 stood near 6,350. It has since risen to 7,704, up roughly 21%, according to the report.
CoinDesk also reported this week that rising yields alone have shown little consistent relationship with bitcoin's returns.
What is confirmed and what is an interpretation
The index values, the 10-year Treasury yield figures and the correlation readings are reported as facts by the source. The claim that the split points to underlying strength in bitcoin and stocks is the report's interpretation, not a confirmed cause.
The source does not say how long the divergence may last or whether bond volatility will spread to bitcoin or equity markets. Those questions remain open.
Why bond volatility matters beyond the bond market
Treasury market swings matter beyond bonds because Treasury notes underpin global finance and credit creation. When that volatility rises, financial conditions usually tighten and market participants tend to take on less risk, according to the report. So far, that has not shown up in bitcoin or stock volatility measures.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.