Bitcoin Posts Best Q3 Since 2017 Despite Recent Dip Below $83,000

Bitcoin closes strong quarter despite weekly drop

Bitcoin fell below $83,000 at the start of the week following developments in the US-Iran conflict, yet it remains up more than 40% for the third quarter. This performance marks the asset's best Q3 gain since 2017. The price correction comes ahead of critical US inflation and jobs data scheduled for release later this week.

The cryptocurrency closed its previous week at $84,450, its highest level since late January. However, shifting liquidity on exchange order books pushed the price down to a one-week low of $82,557. Analysts note that large blocks of sell orders appeared near $85,700, creating temporary resistance that halted upward momentum.

Quarterly gains and upcoming data releases

• Bitcoin's Q3 return of over 40% significantly exceeds the historical average of 8.6% for this period since 2013.
• Markets currently assign a 70% probability to a 0.25% interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in October.
• Analyst Rekt Capital states that Bitcoin must hold the $82,500 support level to confirm a recovery pattern similar to the 2022 bear market bottom.
• The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for August is expected on Wednesday, followed by September nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.

Market context and investor costs

Data from on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant shows that recent buyers, who purchased Bitcoin within the last one to four weeks, remain profitable with an average cost basis of $78,300. Above the current price, the cost basis for US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)—investment vehicles that track the price of Bitcoin—is estimated around $86,000. Further above lies the 2026 yearly open price of $88,700.

Below the current trading range, the cost basis for corporate treasuries holding Bitcoin sits at $80,500. The aggregate cost basis for active investors, known as the True Market Mean, is near $76,700. These levels serve as potential support zones if the price continues to decline.

Fed rate expectations rise amid oil volatility

Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate increase have grown stronger as markets anticipate further tightening. According to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool, odds of a 0.25% hike in October rose from 57.7% a week ago to 70.3%. This shift follows the Fed's decision to raise rates by 0.25% at its September meeting.

Geopolitical tensions continue to influence market sentiment. President Donald Trump rejected a recent ceasefire proposal from Iran, contributing to a 3% surge in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to $95 per barrel. Economists warn that supply deficits in the oil market remain a key driver of these price movements, which can indirectly affect risk assets like Bitcoin.

Technical patterns and critical support levels

Trader and analyst Rekt Capital highlights an inverse head-and-shoulders pattern on the weekly chart, a structure often associated with bullish reversals. The analyst compares the current situation to the 2022 market bottom, where retaining a specific support level was crucial for entering a new accumulation phase.

To validate this pattern, Bitcoin needs to maintain the $82,500 level. If this support fails, the price could revert to a trading range between $60,000 and $80,000. Conversely, holding this level would allow the formation of a "reaccumulation range," potentially signaling the end of the current bear market phase.

Upcoming economic reports

The coming week features two major economic events that could impact asset prices. On Wednesday, the US will release the August PCE inflation data, which the Federal Reserve considers its preferred gauge for inflation. Later in the week, on Friday, the September nonfarm payrolls report will provide insights into the labor market. Previous data showed the economy added 162,000 jobs in August, well above expectations, fueling bets on continued rate hikes.

Sources

• Cointelegraph