Bitcoin reclaims its 365-day average for the first time in 310 days

Bitcoin moves back above its one-year price average

Bitcoin rose above its 365-day rolling simple moving average on Sept. 22, ending 310 days below that line, according to Ryan Horst and Joni Zhuleku, founders of the crypto research firm Altcoin Pro.

A moving average is the average price of an asset over a set period. The 365-day average reflects bitcoin's average price over the past year, so it smooths out daily swings and shows the longer trend rather than the latest move.

The article reporting the move also notes that bitcoin slid about 3% at one point to nearly $82,900 before showing renewed momentum.

Key numbers from the move

• Sept. 22: bitcoin rose above its 365-day average near $80,900, according to Altcoin Pro.
• Altcoin Pro put the 200-day average at about $70,800, with bitcoin roughly 19% above it before a modest dip over the past 36 hours.
• Bitcoin's 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average on Sept. 8, a pattern known as a golden cross.
• Bitcoin fell about 3% to nearly $82,900 at one point, the article's chart note says.

What past crossings of the 365-day line showed

Altcoin Pro looked at earlier times when bitcoin regained its 365-day average after staying below it for at least 90 days. The firm said it found five such cases, and bitcoin was higher 12 months later in all five. The gains ranged from about 59% to more than 1,400%, though the largest increase came in 2012, when bitcoin was a fringe asset.

Horst said the pattern is not fail-safe. When the firm counted shorter periods below the line, it found two failed breakouts, in July 2018 and March 2022, when bitcoin fell about 27% and 59% within 90 days.

“This September’s move is encouraging, especially after 310 days below the line, but we want to see it hold,” Horst said. “It is a signal, not a guarantee.”

Analysts say the 200-day average matters more

Horst and Zhuleku said they remain positive on bitcoin over the longer term, but they said their view depends more on the price trading above its 200-day average than on the 365-day average.

“The 365-day is still catching up to something the 200-day already told us in mid-August,” they said. Altcoin Pro noted the 365-day average was still falling and sat much closer to the market price.

“The 365-day average is telling you where bitcoin was six months ago,” the firm said, adding that the 200-day reaction came roughly three months earlier. “In a market that moves the way this one does, three months is the whole trade.”

A golden cross with a mixed record

Bitcoin's 50-day average crossed above its 200-day average on Sept. 8, creating the so-called golden cross. CoinDesk's Omkar Godbole wrote that this signal has a mixed record on its own, with several past crosses failing to produce a sustained rally.

What is supported and what is not

The $80,900 level of the 365-day average, the 310-day stretch below it, and the study of past crossings come from Altcoin Pro, which shared the findings in an email conversation. The golden cross date comes from CoinDesk. The article does not include independent confirmation of Altcoin Pro's historical study. The source also uses two spellings for the firm, Altcoin Pro and AltcoinPro Research.

What remains unknown is whether bitcoin will stay above the 365-day average. Horst said the signal is not a guarantee, and the article notes that moving averages are based on past prices, so they show how an asset has traded over a set period rather than where it will go next.

Why the 365-day line drew attention

A 365-day average responds more slowly to recent price changes than a 200-day average, so a move above it can suggest a change in the longer trend. That, plus Altcoin Pro's finding that past crossings were followed by 12-month gains, is why chart watchers took notice. The same firm cautions that similar breakouts have also failed.

Sources

• CoinDesk