Bitcoin Recovers Performance Against S&P 500 Following U.S. Midterms

Bitcoin performance matches S&P 500 over 90 sessions

Bitcoin has matched the performance of the S&P 500 over the last 90 trading sessions. This ends a long period where the cryptocurrency lost more sessions than it won compared to the stock market index.

The shift comes as historical data suggests potential for stock market growth following the recent U.S. midterm election results. Bitcoin (BTC), the world's largest cryptocurrency, is often compared to traditional stocks to measure its market strength.

Key findings on market performance

• Bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 in 50% of the last 90 Wall Street trading sessions.
• This is the first time since March 2025 that Bitcoin's win rate has reached this level.
• Historical data shows the S&P 500 often gains over 10% in the months following specific midterm election outcomes.

Analytics show Bitcoin regaining strength

Data from the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode shows that Bitcoin's win rate has recovered after a year of underperformance. On-chain analytics refers to the process of inspecting data directly from the blockchain to understand market trends.

The rolling 90-session period through Wednesday showed an even split in daily returns compared to equities. Glassnode noted that average gains per session for Bitcoin were slightly higher than those of the S&P 500 during this time. The firm suggested that if the win rate stays above 50%, it would show Bitcoin regaining strength against traditional stocks.

Historical trends after midterm elections

Data from Capriole Investments shows that certain U.S. midterm election results have historically led to strong stock market returns. Specifically, when Democrats win both the House and Senate under a Republican president, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 10.7% over the following three months.

This outcome has happened seven times since 1922. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, stated that there is no better election result for the markets than the one that just occurred. Historically, average gains reached 17.5% after six months and 15.5% after one year.

Confirmed market data and correlations

Data confirms that Bitcoin's 20-day correlation with the S&P 500 is currently 0.63. A positive correlation means that both assets tend to move in the same direction. This positive relationship became noticeable in August when both markets gained following U.S. Treasury debt buybacks.

Why the election results matter for markets

The return to a 50% win rate suggests Bitcoin is no longer trailing behind traditional equities as it has for most of the past year. Because Bitcoin currently moves in a similar pattern to the S&P 500, historical trends that favor stocks after midterm elections may also impact the cryptocurrency market.

Sources

• Cointelegraph