Bitcoin Volatility Nears 2026 Lows as Traders Wait on Fed and Midterms, K33 Says

Bitcoin price swings fall close to this year's smallest

Bitcoin's 28-day realized volatility has dropped to 1.2%, close to its lowest level of 2026, according to research and brokerage firm K33. Realized volatility is a measure of how much an asset's price has actually moved over a set period.

K33 said the cryptocurrency traded between $80,000 and $84,000 over the past week. Bitcoin has been stuck in a narrow range since Sept. 21. K33 compared the low level of trading activity to the market's recovery in 2023.

"Expansions typically follow such compressions, and we expect BTC volatility to pick up shortly," said Vetle Lunde, K33's head of research.

Key numbers from K33's report

• Bitcoin's 28-day volatility: 1.2%, near its lowest of 2026.
• Trading range over the past week: $80,000 to $84,000.
• Average daily spot trading volume: $2.5 billion, down 1% from the week before.
• BlackRock's IBIT fund took in inflows equal to 8,128 BTC on Oct. 19 — its largest daily inflow in bitcoin terms since April 2025.
• All U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) together saw net inflows of 6,436 BTC that day, while the other funds recorded a combined net outflow of 1,692 BTC.

Bitcoin moves back in step with the Nasdaq

K33 found that bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq again, after that relationship weakened through August and September. Over the past two weeks, returns for the two were almost identical.

Bitcoin held up relatively well during last week's equity sell-off. It fell around 2% while the Nasdaq posted its worst week since early April 2025. K33 cautioned that this relative resilience did not amount to a fresh decoupling from stocks.

The stock decline followed a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report in September, along with a sell-off in semiconductor shares triggered by reports of a Chinese memory chip breakthrough.

Analyst sees a pause inside a broader recovery

Joel Kruger, market strategist at LMAX Group, told The Block that digital assets remain in a consolidation phase, with bitcoin and ether "searching for direction after the strong recovery through August and September."

Kruger said the recent rebound in Treasury yields and the dollar showed the adjustment in financial markets remained uneven. "We continue to view the recent setbacks as a breather within that recovery, with dips likely to attract support ahead of a potential resumption of gains into year-end," he said.

What is confirmed

K33 reported bitcoin's 28-day volatility at 1.2%, the $80,000–$84,000 weekly range, the $2.5 billion daily spot volume figure, and the ETF flow data for Oct. 19. K33 also reported the renewed correlation with the Nasdaq and the 2% bitcoin decline during last week's equity sell-off.

What is still unclear

K33's expectation that volatility will pick up is a forecast, not a confirmed event. K33's comparison of the current market to the 2023 recovery is an analyst view. Kruger's description of the pullback as a "breather" and his comment about potential gains into year-end are opinions, not confirmed outcomes.

Why it matters

Low volatility means bitcoin's price has been moving less than usual, and thin trading can make it harder for large orders to be filled without moving the price. The renewed link with the Nasdaq also suggests bitcoin is currently moving with broader technology stocks rather than on its own.

What happens next

K33 said markets are pricing an 80% chance of no rate change at the Federal Reserve's Oct. 28 meeting. The U.S. midterm elections take place on Nov. 3. Bitcoin was trading at around $83,350 on Wednesday, according to The Block's prices page.

Sources

• The Block

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