CryptoQuant: Bitcoin may have entered early bull market but needs to break $83,000 for confirmation

Bitcoin shows early signs of a new bull market

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant says Bitcoin has entered the early phase of a new bull market after rising more than 25% in the past week. However, the firm states that Bitcoin must close above its 365-day moving average, currently near $83,000, for an "official" confirmation of the trend.

Bitcoin reached over $81,000 this week, driven by two key events: the U.S. Treasury’s plan to double its long-term government bond buybacks starting September 9, and comments from President Donald Trump suggesting the U.S. government may consider buying Bitcoin.

Key indicators from CryptoQuant’s report

• Bitcoin’s price must close above $83,000 to confirm a new bull market, according to historical patterns.
• CryptoQuant’s Bull Score jumped from 30 to 80 in one week, the strongest reading since October 2025.
• Eight out of ten on-chain and market metrics in the score are now bullish.
• Spot and futures demand are growing together for the first time since October 2025.
• Short-term holders took $1.2 billion in profits between August 20 and 22, including a single-day record of $614 million.

Short-term market looks overheated

CryptoQuant warns that the market appears overheated in the short term. Traders’ unrealized profit margin reached 20.5%, the highest since June 2025. Historically, such profit levels have led to selling pressure as traders take gains.

Exchange inflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum (a blockchain platform whose native currency is ETH), and XRP (a digital currency used for fast payments) have also risen. Bitcoin inflows hit 53,000 BTC, the highest since June 5. Ethereum inflows reached 1.7 million ETH, while XRP whale inflows climbed to 460 million XRP, their highest level since February.

What CryptoQuant’s analysis says

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that Bitcoin’s bull markets have historically begun when its price crosses above its 365-day moving average. Conversely, bear markets start when the price falls below this level. Currently, Bitcoin is about 5% below this key level, which may act as resistance until it is broken.

CryptoQuant also noted that when large holders move Bitcoin or other assets to exchanges after a sharp rally, it often signals an intent to sell, take profits, or hedge. This increases the available supply for trading and could lead to price volatility.

What is confirmed

• Bitcoin has risen over 25% in the past week, reaching above $81,000.
• CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has reached its highest level since October 2025.
• Eight of ten key metrics tracked by CryptoQuant are now bullish.
• Exchange inflows for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP have increased significantly.
• Short-term holders have taken substantial profits in recent days.

What remains uncertain

• Whether Bitcoin will close above $83,000 to confirm a new bull market.
• How long the current short-term overheating will last before stabilizing.
• The impact of increased exchange inflows on Bitcoin’s price in the coming weeks.

Why this matters for Bitcoin investors

The report suggests that while Bitcoin shows strong signs of entering a new bull market, the $83,000 level is critical for confirmation. If Bitcoin fails to break this level, it could face a correction. The increase in exchange inflows and profit-taking by short-term holders may also lead to short-term price swings.

Sources

• The Block