JPMorgan Asset Management Sees 10% Yearly Bitcoin Returns Over Next Decade
JPMorgan's asset arm puts numbers on a decade of bitcoin
JPMorgan's asset management division expects bitcoin to return about 10% a year over the next 10 years, according to its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report published on Tuesday. That base case is higher than the firm's own projections for US bonds, US stocks and gold.
The report is the first time JPMorgan has given a range for bitcoin returns in its research rather than a single figure, according to CoinDesk.
The numbers behind the forecast
- Bitcoin base case: 10% annualized return over the next decade.
- Bear case: -9.7% a year.
- Bull case: 17% a year.
- US bonds: 5.6% to 6.6%.
- US large-cap equities: 7.5%. US small-cap equities: 7.7%.
- Gold: 5.5%.
What the report says about bitcoin's role
The bank stayed cautious. JPMorgan Asset Management said bitcoin's "volatility and unstable correlation to other asset classes…remain an obstacle to [its] widespread inclusion in portfolios."
Portfolio manager Dr Sheena Shah and head of digital asset strategy Dennis Cristallo wrote that the firm does not make a case for bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier. They described it as a "speculative asset and a hedge against monetary easing."
"It lacks a strategic role in portfolios other than as a bet on fiat currency expansion or future asset trading on blockchains," they added. They also noted that bitcoin mostly trades like a high-risk asset tied to global money supply growth, but is sometimes treated as "digital gold," and that unstable correlations make it hard to model.
JPMorgan's mixed history with crypto
The bank's stance on crypto has been complicated, largely because of the widely reported views of CEO Jamie Dimon. In 2017 Dimon called bitcoin a "fraud," a skeptical position CoinDesk reports he has repeated in recent years with softer wording.
What is confirmed
The forecast figures, the publication of the report by JPMorgan Asset Management on Tuesday, and the quotation of Shah and Cristallo all come from the report as described by CoinDesk. These are projections and opinions from JPMorgan's asset management division, not confirmed market outcomes.
Why it matters
The figures put bitcoin in the same comparison table as traditional assets for institutional readers. At the same time, the bank's own commentary says it still does not treat bitcoin as a core portfolio holding, so the return estimate and the cautious view sit side by side in the same report.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.