JPMorgan Projects Bitcoin to Beat US Stocks and Gold Over Next Decade
JPMorgan puts Bitcoin in its decade-long outlook
JPMorgan Asset Management expects Bitcoin to do better than US stocks and gold over the next ten years, but says its price swings are too unpredictable for it to play a diversifying role in portfolios right now.
The bank included Bitcoin in its long-term capital market assumptions for the first time. That report is an annual set of projections covering more than 200 assets, used by investors to plan portfolios.
Key numbers from the report
- Bitcoin: 10% projected annualized return.
- Large-cap US stocks: 7.5% projected annualized return.
- Gold: 5.5% projected annualized return.
- Bitcoin bull case: 16.6% annualized return.
- Bitcoin bear case: 11.2% annualized loss.
The figures come from JPMorgan's 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, published on Monday.
What JPMorgan says about Bitcoin's role
The report states that the bank does not currently make a case for Bitcoin as a diversifier in portfolios because its market correlations are unstable. A diversifier is an asset that moves differently from others, which can help spread risk.
JPMorgan describes Bitcoin as a speculative asset and as a hedge against monetary easing. The projections considered Bitcoin's supply growth relative to money supply, its potential role alongside gold, and network adoption.
How Bitwise responded
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan welcomed Bitcoin's inclusion in the report. In a post on X, he wrote: "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight at you, then they add you to their Long-Term Capital Markets Assumptions paper and predict you'll be the best-performing asset of the next decade."
Bitwise's own forecast is more bullish. The firm projected in August 2025 that Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035, with a base-case annualized return of 28.3%.
What is confirmed
JPMorgan Asset Management published the report and included Bitcoin in it for the first time. The projected returns, the bull and bear cases, and the bank's description of Bitcoin as speculative are all stated in the report. Hougan's comment and Bitwise's earlier projection are also on the record.
What is still unclear
The return figures are projections, not results. JPMorgan's bear case shows Bitcoin could post an annualized loss, so the report itself does not treat the 10% figure as certain. The long-term outlook also contrasts with the bank's current view that Bitcoin is not yet suitable as a portfolio diversifier.
Why this matters
The report is a widely followed planning document for institutional investors. Bitcoin appearing in it, with a projected return above stocks and gold, gives large investors a formal reference point for the asset. At the same time, JPMorgan's warning about volatility and unstable correlations means the inclusion does not amount to a recommendation to hold Bitcoin for diversification.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.