JPMorgan issues first 10-year bitcoin return forecast of 10% annually
JPMorgan releases its first long-term bitcoin return forecast
JPMorgan Asset Management has released its first 10-year return forecast for bitcoin, projecting a compounded annual return of 10%. The report comes from the firm’s 31st annual Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report.
While the forecast is positive, the bank also warned that bitcoin’s high volatility and unstable correlations with other assets remain major obstacles to its inclusion in most investment portfolios.
Key numbers from the forecast
- Projected 10-year annual return for bitcoin: 10% compounded
- Estimated bitcoin volatility: 55%
- Projected 10-year return for gold (for comparison): 5.5%
- Estimated digital asset inflows into 2026: around $50 billion
What the report says about portfolio inclusion
JPMorgan analysts wrote that the volatility and unstable correlation of bitcoin remain an obstacle to widespread inclusion in portfolios. As a result, the cryptocurrency is not yet included in the firm’s main models for measuring how asset prices move together.
However, the firm introduced a separate, smaller covariance matrix—a statistical tool that measures how different assets move relative to each other—with bitcoin included against a subset of other assets.
The analysts noted they could revise their approach as bitcoin’s volatility declines and its correlations with other assets stabilize. They pointed to improving regulation, better liquidity, and more mature price discovery as factors that could change their stance over time.
Rising institutional interest
The forecast reflects growing institutional interest in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts noted that investors are increasingly exploring crypto assets, supported by more defined regulation and growing infrastructure. This includes exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which are investment funds traded on stock exchanges, futures contracts, publicly traded crypto companies, options, and improved custody and financing markets.
The firm called bitcoin the “anchor of the crypto ecosystem,” citing its transactional security, longevity, improving regulatory clarity, and liquidity.
Industry reaction
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan welcomed the forecast but said JPMorgan’s 55% volatility estimate was too high, pointing to bitcoin’s declining volatility over the past 15 years. He wrote on X that the forecast followed a familiar pattern for bitcoin’s acceptance on Wall Street.
Strategy Chairman Michael Saylor also welcomed the report, writing on X: “Wall Street is doing the math.”
Why this matters
JPMorgan is one of the world’s largest banks, and its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report is closely watched by institutional investors. The first-ever long-term return forecast for bitcoin signals a gradual shift in how major financial firms view the asset, even as they continue to flag risks.
What is still unclear
Bitcoin’s long-term volatility and correlation patterns remain uncertain. JPMorgan itself cautioned that it could revise its approach as market conditions change, and some industry figures argue the bank’s volatility estimate is too high.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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