JPMorgan Puts Bitcoin at the Top of Its 10-Year Return Forecast
Bitcoin takes the top spot in JPMorgan's long-term outlook
JPMorgan Asset Management has published its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, the 31st edition of a report that institutional allocators use to build their models. The report ranks thirteen asset classes by expected compound return over the next decade, and Bitcoin sits at the top of the list.
According to the report, JPMorgan projects about 10% annual returns for Bitcoin over 10 to 15 years. This is the first time Bitcoin has appeared in the report at all.
Where Bitcoin sits against other assets
- JPMorgan projects roughly 10% annually for Bitcoin over a 10 to 15 year horizon.
- REITs rank second at 8.2%, followed by small caps at 7.7% and U.S. large caps at 7.5%.
- Gold is placed at 5.5%, near the bottom of the table.
- Over a decade of compounding, the report says $100 in Bitcoin would become $259, against $206 in large caps and $171 in gold.
- Bitcoin's arithmetic return is listed at 20.9% while the compound figure is 10%, a 10.9-point gap the report attributes to volatility drag. For large caps that gap is 1.45 points.
- Annualized volatility is given as 55% for Bitcoin against 18% for stocks.
What JPMorgan says about the debasement case
The report calls the debasement argument for Bitcoin "wide of the mark" and places gold near the bottom of the ranking. The newsletter author notes that Bitcoin is no longer measured against gold in this comparison, but against REITs and small caps.
The author also points to timing, noting that 10-year Treasury yields are above 5% and JPMorgan's global bond forecasts are the highest in two decades, while the bank still ranked Bitcoin first.
Mixed moves across major coins and altcoins
- Major cryptocurrencies were up 2-4% on the day, with ZEC leading. BTC was up 2% at $83.4k, ETH up 4% at $2,465, SOL up 3% at $107, HYPE up 4% at $81 and ZEC up 13% at $1,285.
- Top altcoin movers included ENA (+12%), PYTH (+11%), NEAR (+11%) and VVV (+9%).
- Oil fell 10% to $99, while gold rose 0.2% to $4,150. Stock futures were green as oil dropped, with the Dow up 0.1% and the Nasdaq up 0.6%.
- Bitcoin ETFs recorded $23 million in net inflows on Monday. Ether ETFs lost $26 million in net outflows.
- Meme coin leaders were mostly higher: DOGE +4%, SHIB +4%, PEPE +9%, PENGU +8%, TRUMP +8%, SPX +7% and BONK +7%.
Companies push back on tokenized shares
Microsoft, Alphabet, Goldman Sachs, Qualcomm, Caterpillar, McDonald's and Western Digital joined the list of companies objecting to tokenized versions of their shares trading on the OKX-ICE venue. That took the count from nine to 16 in four days.
Ethereum staking reaches a record share of supply
Bitwise's Q4 staking report shows Ethereum staking at a record 43.8 million ETH, equal to 35.9% of supply and roughly $106 billion at current prices. The report marks a sixth straight quarter of growth.
Regulators and payments firms move on AI agents
The CFTC set the agenda for its first Frontier Forum on October 28, examining how AI could reshape derivatives markets and how traders' own AI agents might operate under existing rules.
Mastercard opened early access to Agent Pay for Machines, allowing AI agents to discover services and pay for them within spending caps set by humans.
Drift exploit wallets move funds to Tornado Cash
Wallets tied to April's $295.7 million Drift exploit moved 25,700 ETH worth about $61.6 million into Tornado Cash over roughly two hours, after two months of dormancy.
Zcash developers set the NU7 upgrade block
Zcash developers settled on block 3,543,405 for the NU7 upgrade, expected around November 5. The upgrade cuts block times from 75 seconds to 25 and shuts down Sprout, the original privacy pool, permanently.
Pump.fun integration drives record numbers for Collector Crypt
Collector Crypt posted record figures after connecting to Pump.fun's distribution. It reported 106,023 packs opened in a single day, double its previous record, generating more than $22 million in gross revenue. Daily active users rose six-fold from 1,000 to over 6,200, and unique wallets holding at least one tokenized collectible passed 20,000 for the first time.
Pump.fun introduced Kimchi as its latest app partner and launched a new ad campaign called "pill your friends" around the launch. Onchain protocol revenue for the day was led by Papertrade at $2.5 million, followed by Pump.fun at $2.18 million and Hyperliquid at $1.92 million.
OpenSea rolled its mobile app out to everyone for the first time after a closed beta.
NFT market leaders trade higher
NFT leaders were mostly green: Punks +4% at 31.3 ETH, BAYC +8% at 5.99 ETH and Pudgy +2% at 2.45 ETH. Invisible Friends (+150%), Good Vibes Club (+36%) and Statements (+41%) led top movers, with Fidenza up 20%.
What is confirmed
JPMorgan Asset Management released its 2027 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions report, and it includes Bitcoin for the first time with a projected roughly 10% annual return over 10 to 15 years. The report's rankings, volatility figures and the other data points above come from the sourced newsletter.
What is still unclear
The newsletter does not state how the market will respond to the forecast, and it does not provide a timeline for any change in institutional allocations. The author's line that Bitcoin is "winning" against REITs and small caps is his own analysis, not a JPMorgan statement.
Why it matters
The newsletter author argues the significance lies less in the number than in its inclusion: pension consultants and registered investment advisers build allocation models from assumptions like these, and Bitcoin previously had no defined expected return in the report.
Sources
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.