Bitcoin Holds Near $80,000 as ETF Inflows Slow Ahead of US Inflation Data
Bitcoin Price Hovers Near Key Support Levels
Bitcoin is currently trading near $80,000, sitting close to the average purchase prices for major institutional investors. This level acts as a psychological and financial floor, meaning many large holders bought their coins at this price and are likely to defend it.
Recent data shows a sharp drop in new money entering the market. Net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which are funds that allow investors to hold Bitcoin, decreased by 95.6% in a single day. This slowdown suggests that institutional demand has weakened recently.
With this backdrop, the market is waiting for US economic data to see if the $80,000 support holds. The upcoming release of inflation figures and business activity reports will test how resilient the crypto market remains before the Federal Reserve’s next decision on interest rates.
The Cost Basis for Institutional Buyers
According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, the average cost basis for US spot Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $81,500. Corporate treasury departments, which include businesses that hold Bitcoin, have an average acquisition cost near $80,200.
On October 15, the price of Bitcoin briefly dipped below these levels, reaching $80,100. However, it recovered quickly. As of October 20, trading volume on major exchanges like Binance showed that bid orders had reappeared at the $80,000 level, although these orders were smaller in size compared to the previous day.
Slowdown in ETF Inflows and Trading Volume
- Farside Investors reported $526.7 million in net inflows on October 19, followed by only $23.2 million on October 20.
- The total net inflow for these two days was $549.9 million, but the day-over-day drop in daily inflows highlights a significant loss of momentum.
- Glassnode notes that average spot ETF trading volume over the last 30 days is less than a quarter of what it was a year ago.
- Purchases by corporate treasuries have slowed to less than 10% of their peak level from November 2024.
US Economic Data to Watch This Week
Two major economic events are scheduled to test the current market sentiment. On Thursday, the US government conducted a $26 billion auction for five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), which measure investor confidence in future inflation. On Friday, the release of final University of Michigan inflation expectations and preliminary flash Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data will provide updates on business pricing and consumer outlook.
Recent data shows September CPI (Consumer Price Index) at 3.7% annually, while preliminary Michigan surveys suggest one-year inflation expectations at 4.7%. The Federal Reserve raised its target interest rate range to 3.75%-4.00% in September, and a survey of 100 economists indicates that 94 expect the Fed to hold rates steady on October 28.
Market Scenarios Based on Data
Analysts suggest two likely paths for Bitcoin based on the upcoming data. If inflation expectations remain stable or decrease, and short-term Treasury yields fall, Bitcoin may have room to move toward the $85,000–$87,500 range. This area contains overhead supply, where coins bought six to twelve months ago are likely to be sold.
Conversely, if inflation data comes in hotter than expected, it could push up short-term US Treasury yields and the value of the US dollar. In this scenario, Bitcoin might face pressure to break below $80,000. The next key support levels would be near $79,600, followed by the True Market Mean at $77,600.
Newisty Editorial Team covers technology, cryptocurrency, digital products, online platforms, developer tools and the wider digital economy. Our content is researched from official sources, company announcements, public documentation, market data and other primary or reputable sources. Articles are reviewed and edited before publication for clarity, accuracy and useful context.
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