Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may be fading as institutional holdings grow

Bitcoin analyst suggests a shift in market cycles

Bitcoin’s long-observed four-year cycle may be giving way to a longer, 6-to-8-year rhythm influenced by Wall Street, according to analyst Willy Woo.

On Sept. 3, Woo said the change reflects the growing impact of institutional capital and traditional finance cycles, rather than Bitcoin’s built-in halving events, which reduce the rate at which new coins are created.

Why the cycle might be changing

Woo argues that institutional holdings—such as those in exchange-traded products (ETPs) and corporate treasuries—now far exceed the amount of new Bitcoin added by miners each year. Data shows public companies hold over 1.2 million BTC, while ETPs control more than 1.5 million BTC, totaling over 2.7 million BTC. This dwarfs the roughly 164,250 BTC miners add annually, a figure set to drop to about 82,125 BTC after the next halving in 2028.

As a result, Woo suggests that credit conditions, global liquidity, and portfolio flows may play a larger role in shaping Bitcoin’s market turns than its halving schedule.

Not everyone agrees the old cycle is dead

Other researchers, including Galaxy Research and 21Shares, say the four-year cycle remains visible, though its effects may be weakening. Fidelity Digital Assets has also noted that Bitcoin’s growing market size and institutional involvement could alter future cycles, making them less volatile than in the past.

Woo’s 6-to-8-year thesis is still developing and not yet a confirmed replacement for the traditional framework.

What is confirmed

• Willy Woo proposed on Sept. 3 that Bitcoin may shift to a 6-to-8-year cycle tied to traditional finance.
• Institutional holdings (2.7+ million BTC) now far exceed annual miner issuance (~164,250 BTC).
• After the 2028 halving, annual miner issuance will drop to ~82,125 BTC.
• Galaxy Research and 21Shares report the four-year cycle is still visible but evolving.

Why it matters

If institutional influence continues to grow, Bitcoin’s price movements may align more closely with traditional financial cycles, such as short-term debt cycles, rather than its internal halving schedule.

Sources

• CryptoSlate