Vitalik Buterin Endorses Trueo's Ethereum Move as TRUE Token Jumps 900%

Trueo says Ethereum mainnet will be its main home

Trueo, a prediction market protocol, says it will make Ethereum mainnet its primary deployment and build its next oracle there. Prediction markets let people trade on the outcome of future events.

Vitalik Buterin endorsed the plan by name. He posted at 5:09 p.m. ET, 78 minutes after Trueo published its plan, and wrote: "Glad to see that Ethereum L1 will have a new strong prediction market contender that is dedicated to decentralization, and being ethical and not corposlop, and to actually trying to do interesting and meaningful things with this class of economic primitive."

Ethereum's base layer has no prediction market of scale. Polymarket settles on Polygon, and Kalshi is a CFTC-designated contract market with no onchain footprint. The largest prediction market deployed on Ethereum mainnet is Augur, at $2.14 million in total value locked, according to DefiLlama. Total value locked is the value of assets deposited in a protocol.

Buterin posted through Firefly, a client that publishes across X, Farcaster and Lens. He has disclosed no position in TRUE.

The TRUE token's 24-hour move

• TRUE traded at $0.1786, up 900% over 24 hours, according to CoinGecko. It moved between $0.0176 and $0.2142 during that period.
• Market capitalization was $16.6 million on $11.9 million of 24-hour volume. Of a maximum supply of 100 million tokens, 92.94 million were circulating.
• Trueo holds $847,526 in total value locked, all of it on Base, according to DefiLlama.
• That ranked Trueo 14th of the 123 protocols in DefiLlama's prediction market category, which holds $393.91 million. Polymarket International accounts for $337.96 million of that.
• TRUE remains the protocol token.

Why Trueo says it is moving

Trueo launched on Base, a layer-2 network, in March 2025. The team said a layer 2 was the right choice at the time because mainnet gas costs were elevated and parts of the app were experimental, and that Base "served as a great sandbox to experiment and discover our strengths."

The team said the reason for the move is integrations. "On Base, integrations are practically limited to the immediate ecosystem," it wrote. On Ethereum, it said, the protocol would sit next to the deepest liquidity in crypto and one hop from the largest crypto and finance ecosystems. It pointed to possible paths to oracle services, yield strategies for its TYD collateral token, and the use of prediction markets inside DeFi.

Trueo said the decision "has nothing to do with Base's positioning among competing chains."

No migration date, and one cutoff date for new markets

Trueo has not set a migration date. Its deployments page lists contracts on Base mainnet only, and the network_config.json file in its GitHub repository carries a single network entry, base_mainnet_prod.

The only date in the announcement is Jan. 31, 2027. Trueo asked Base users not to create markets that expire after that date and to deploy those markets on Ethereum once the Ethereum instance is live. Markets expiring before January are not affected.

Trading, resolutions and redemptions will continue through the transition, and TYD will keep accruing yield, according to the announcement. Existing Base markets that run past the migration stay accessible through the app under the current resolution system.

Trueo said holders will be able to migrate their tokens to Ethereum with no cutoff date, and that future staking and liquidity reward programs will run on Ethereum.

The oracle plan and how rival markets resolve

Trueo said its first goals after migrating are liquidity in key market categories and the next version of its oracle. An oracle is the system that reports real-world outcomes so a market can settle. "A prediction market is only as good as its oracle," the team wrote, adding that "due process in dispute resolution is severely lacking despite the growth of prediction markets over the past five years."

The current system is an optimistic oracle. Users stake TRUE or TRUE-ETH LP tokens for voting power in resolutions, backed by bonds, slashing, an Oracle Council, an escalation contract and soulbound tokens for attesters, according to the protocol's documentation and its deployed contract set. Trueo says the oracle is designed to process evidence from "virtually any legitimate data source."

Polymarket also resolves through an optimistic oracle, UMA's, according to its documentation. Proposers post a bond, and a two-hour window opens for disputes. Earlier The Defiant reports noted that this design has been tested repeatedly, including in a $60 million dispute over Strategy's May bitcoin sale and a Ukraine minerals market traced to a single large UMA holder. Kalshi settles as a regulated exchange.

Where prediction market volume sits

Kalshi and Polymarket took 93% of prediction market volume in August, as two smaller venues shut down within hours of each other.

Kalshi has raised about $2.69 billion. Intercontinental Exchange has put $2.6 billion into Polymarket across two tranches: $2 billion in October 2025 and $600 million in March. Both venues are preparing perpetual futures products.

What is still unclear

• No migration date has been announced, and Trueo's contracts are still deployed only on Base.
• The announcement gives no timeline for building the next oracle or for moving liquidity to Ethereum.

Sources

• The Defiant